U.S. Faces Shortage of Cancer Doctors: Report

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This study, actually part one of a two-part project, predicts a 48 percent increase in cancer incidence and an 81 percent increase in people living with or surviving cancer, but only a 14 percent increase in the number of patient visits provided by the projected supply of oncologists between 2000 and 2030.

That leaves a shortfall of 9.4 million to 15 million visits -- or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists -- about one-quarter to one-third of the total 2005 supply. By 2020 there will be a total of about 12,500 oncologists practicing in the United States.

"The bottom line is no matter which scenario we looked at, it is likely that we'll be facing a shortage," said Dr. Edward Salsberg, director of the Association of American Medical Colleges' Center for Workforce Studies.

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One outside expert agreed that U.S. cancer care faces real challenges.

"The article points out obvious issues that are going to be facing the country as we get toward 2020," said Martin Brown, chief of the health services and economics branch at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. "I wouldn't say it's a crisis but it puts on the table a set of problems that need to be solved. They do suggest some pretty major changes in the way medical care is delivered."

"There's certainly room for uncertainty," added Brown, whose department contributed information to the ASCO report. "The demand side might not increase quite as fast as the data suggested. It's the aging that's the overwhelming driver. Other things to offset aging would have to be pretty dramatic."

No one thing is going to remedy the problem, but there are a number of initiatives that may ease the burden, the report's authors said.

On the supply side, the study mentioned increasing fellowship training positions, improving efficiency (for example, by increasing the use of electronic medical records), increasing the use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants in cancer care, and delaying the retirement of oncologists currently practicing.

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