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Framingham Score May Not Spot Lifetime Heart Risk


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"Those with a higher lifetime risk had a greater burden and greater progression of atherosclerosis," Berry said. Atherosclerosis is the hardening of the arteries that can lead to a heart attack, stroke or other cardiovascular problems.

Berry said the Framingham Risk Score remains an important indicator of short-term risk. But, he added, "We feel that this study emphasizes the role of risk factors and the effect they have across the entire life span."

Dr. Kevin M. Johnson, assistant clinical professor of diagnostic radiology at Yale University, said, "This [new study] is another example of how the Framingham Risk Score leaves room for improvement. This paper is part of a discussion about where the weaknesses are and how we can come up with a better risk estimate."

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Johnson was lead author of a report published last week in the American Journal of Roentgenology that showed that the Framingham score did not accurately predict cardiovascular risk in a group of people with no history of coronary heart disease. His study also used blood vessel scans, with computerized tomography showing the amount of potentially clogging plaque in the arteries.

Johnson said a new risk assessment "will incorporate the Framingham ideas, but the way they are counted and thrown into the equation will differ."

Hi-tech imaging could be used to help define risk, but there are problems with its everyday use, such as cost and exposure to radiation, he said.

"The question is how we can put together a scheme in which we use the Framingham risk factors, perhaps with calcium scanning for some people and CT for others," Johnson said. "Events are pushing people toward some kind of revision."

The third recent study to question the Framingham score concerned a specific group of people not covered by the criteria -- those 85 and older. The Framingham score did no better than chance in predicting the 108 deaths that occurred among the 215 women and 87 men who were followed for five years, said researchers from Leiden University Medical Center in the Netherlands. The finding was published online Jan. 9 in the journal BMJ.

More information

For more on cardiovascular disease, visit the American Heart Association.

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Copyright © 2009 ScoutNews, LLC. All rights reserved.
Last updated 1/12/2009

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SOURCES: Jarrett D. Berry, M.D., assistant professor of medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas; Kevin M. Johnson, M.D., assistant clinical professor of diagnostic radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Conn.; Jan. 13, 2009, Circulation; January 2009, American Journal of Roentgenology; Jan. 9, 2009, BMJ, online


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