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(Ivanhoe Newswire) -- Data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggests the future physician workforce could be younger and fewer in number than previously thought.
Recent projections estimate the shortage of physicians may be as high as 200,000 less than recommended by the year 2020.
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Although debate over potential shortages has focused largely on the number and type of physicians needed in the future, concerns have also been raised about data used in physician supply estimates and projections, study authors wrote.
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau suggests the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile data, often used by workforce analysts, significantly overestimates the physicians available at an older age. Experts say this could be attributed to delays in updating data when a physician retires or changes status.
The Census Bureau Current Population Survey (CPS) estimated 10 percent, or 67,000, fewer physicians than Masterfile estimated in an average year, and 20 percent fewer active physicians between ages 55 to 64 each year.
The CPS estimates of more young physicians were consistent with historical growth observed in the number of first-year residents, and the CPS estimates of fewer older physicians were consistent with lower Medicare billing by older physicians," the authors wrote.
SOURCE: JAMA, October 21, 2009
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